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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Outlook Issue No. 10 September–December 2002
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, and 105 in 2001 (final). The import usage index does not include exports, which rose substantially in 2001.
The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been slowly easing downward from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000, to $3.55-$3.90 in mid-year 2001, $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May 2002, and to $2.80-$3.20 in beginning September 2002.
The U.S. (world) market conditions and outlook for 2002 reported by our observers as follows:
Cominco Ltd: (note: change in observer person) Overall sales in 2002 will be up 5% over 2001. The pharmaceutical-chemical-pigment end use will be up 5%. Sales of bismuth alloys in 2002 will be up 5%-6%. Bismuth replacement of toxic lead is happening only slowly; there is now a polymer shot to compete with bismuth shot. Sales of metallurgical additives in 2002 will be down 10% from 2001.
A Prominent UK Bismuth Producer: Overall sales in 2002 will be off 10%-15% from 2001. Sales in the pharmaceutical-chemical grouping in 2002 will be off 10%. Sales of yellow pigments (bismuth vanadate) continue to be strong, particularly in yellow paint for automotive vehicles. Sales of bismuth alloys and solders in 2002 will be down 5%; in general, bismuth substitution for toxic lead is going slowly. Metallurgical additive sales in 2002 will be off 15%-20%; see steel outlook in GAN.
The next outlook issue, which will examine the outlook in detail by end-use category, will follow a few news/data issues.