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A Taylor, Jr
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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Issue No. 11 January–March 2003
General Outlook for 2002-03: Overall bismuth sales were almost flat from 2001 to 2002 according to U.S. consumption statistics for First Half 2002, but U.S. import statistics showed a significant decrease of the same magnitude as the import usage index. The bismuth outlook for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use, where 2002 consumption (preliminary, annualized) appears to be almost the same as 2001, apparently will be flat in 2002-03. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics will be weaker and yellow pigments will be stronger. The outlook for bismuth alloys (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, appears to be no growth in 2002-03; 2002 consumption (preliminary) is almost the same as in 2001, apparently slow-moving toxic lead replacement is slowing even more. The outlook for the metallurgical additives end-use in 2002-03 is even more puzzling; consumption in this end-use in First Half 2002 (preliminary, annualized) is up about 3% over that of year 2001; 2002 has apparently shown no sales loss, which is not what one would expect given the steel situation. Troubling and puzzling for all these end-use outlooks is the discrepancy between consumption and the much poorer performance of imports.
China's Hunan Shizhuyuan Nonferrous Metals Mine, a major Chinese bismuth producer, stated it is maintaining its bismuth production at 600 tonnes per year, and not increasing it. Mine production in 2001 for China was 1,500 tonnes, and world production was 4,000 tonnes, according to the USGS. Other sources give significantly higher numbers.
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001 (final), and 81 in 2002 (very preliminary). The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been slowly easing downward from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000, to $3.55-$3.90 in mid-year 2001, to $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, to $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May, slid through $2.80-$3.20 in late August to $2.70-$3.10 in late November 2002.