Harold
A Taylor, Jr
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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Detailed Outlook Issue No. 12 April–June 2003
This outlook is based on structured, in-depth conversations with well-placed industry observers, some preliminary statistics, and the professional judgment of the Editor/Publisher, Harold A. Taylor.
General Outlook for 2003: The general outlook for bismuth looks neutral to negative for 2003, the outlook for indium and dimension stone is positive; the outlook for graphite is definitely negative. Even steel may have bottomed in 2001, although it probably has a way to go. Overall bismuth sales in 2002 decreased 10% or a bit less from 2001, but are likely to stay the same in 2003 as in 2002.
Outlook for chemicals: The bismuth outlook for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use, a major one, is that 2002 consumption was down a bit under 10% from 2001 consumption; 2003 consumption will be the same as 2002. Yellow pigments (bismuth vanadate) in the pigments subgroup continued strong. The use in pharmaceuticals (bismuth subsalicylate in stomach remedies), the major subgroup, and the cosmetics (bismuth oxychloride in pearlescent frosted lipstick and nail polish) subgroup was off, even though it is usually recession-resistant because it is need-driven.
Outlook for bismuth alloys: The other major end-use, bismuth alloys (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, looks the most positive; 2002 consumption was off only a few percent from 2001, and 2003 consumption is likely to be the same as 2002. If slow-moving toxic lead replacement accelerates it could improve the outlook further. Use of bismuth birdshot is being resisted and its marketing has been uninspired. Much of the bismuth birdshot used in the U.S. is imported from Europe. The bismuth market in galvanizing is growing but is a niche application occurring when a more durable galvanizing is needed.
The outlook for the metallurgical additives end-use that gives free-machining properties to steel, aluminum, and some other metals is the worst; consumption in 2002 was down almost 20% from 2001, and 2003 will be the same as 2002. Some steel-supplier industries are doing even worse; see graphite.
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import-usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001, and 90 in 2002 annualized on part-year data. The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been relentlessly easing downward from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at yearend 2000 through $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, $2.85-$3.30 in midJune, and $2.70-$3.10 in February 2003.