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A Taylor, Jr
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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
No. 13 July–September 2003
General Outlook for 2003: Overall bismuth sales in 2003 are likely to be about the same as in 2002. The bismuth outlook in 2003 for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use will apparently be about the same as in 2002. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics will be weaker and yellow pigments will be stronger. The outlook for consumption of bismuth alloys in 2003 (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, appears to be unchanged from 2002. The outlook for consumption in the metallurgical additives end-use in 2003 is also for no change; consumption will be the same as in 2002.
The next issue will feature the midyear 2003 outlook, but there will be an early-bird peek at the outlook before all the observers have reported in, on the home page, replacing the post-Iraq outlook.
Some scenarios for extensive bismuth substitution for toxic lead because of new environmental regulation appeared in my MJ-FT Bismuth report, especially for ammunition and plumbing-type uses. Little significant impact has occurred in subsequent bismuth statistics, so an examination of recent USGS lead consumption in the U.S. statistics might be helpful:
1996(MJ) |
1999 |
2001 |
|
| Lead oxide (glass, ceramics) | 57,000 |
58,200 |
55,900 |
| Solder, fusible alloys | 9,000 |
13,100 |
6,120 |
| Sheet lead, pipes, traps | 15,800 |
13,620 |
24,800 |
| Plumbing brasses, bronzes | 5,500 |
3,940 |
2,590 |
| Ammunition | 52,000 |
58,300 |
53,600 |
The above substitution scenarios still have not begun, save-perhaps -for plumbing brasses, bronzes, and solders.
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001, and 86 in 2002 (semifinal). The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been slowly easing downward until early 2003 from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000, to $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, to $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May 2002, to $2.70-$3.10 in late November 2002, still at $2.70-$3.10 in February 2003, and $2.80-$3.10 in June 2003.
The MBR Leading World Nonferrous Demand Index in November-December 2002 averaged 97.5, in January-February 2003 averaged 96.0, and in March-April 2003 averaged 102.0; this is clearly not a negative trend, but is much broader than bismuth.