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A Taylor, Jr
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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Outlook Issue No. 14 October–December 2003
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001, 91 in 2002 (final), and 112 in 2003 (very preliminary). The import usage index does not include exports, which dropped drastically in 2002 from 2001.
Comparing U.S. consumption statistics (USGS) by end use shows that overall 2002 consumption was up only a few percent from 2001. The biggest change in the end-uses in 2002 was the use in bismuth alloys, which rose 10% from 2001. The use in chemicals (pharmaceuticals) in 2002 rose less than a percent from 2001, and the use in metallurgical additives rose about 5% from 2001.
The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been slowly easing downward from $3.25-$3.60 per pound in early January 2002, to $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May 2002, to $2.80-$3.20 in beginning September 2002, and to $2.70-$3.10 from late November 2002 through February 2003. Then it went up to $2.80-$3.10 in June 2003 but down to $2.65-$2.95 in early October 2003.
Announcement: "Early-Bird" Outlooks will be appearing on the cover in the future when I have talked to enough observers to get a clear picture but before I have talked to everyone; the "Early-Bird" for this outlook appeared on the cover about a month ago. In a year there will be four "Early-Birds" on the cover and four commodity-specific issues such as this, two outlook issues and two news-statistics issues.
The U.S. (world) market conditions and outlook for 2003 reported by our observers are as follows:
A North American Miner, Smelter, and Refiner: Overall bismuth sales in 2003 are flat to up 5% over 2002. The pharmaceutical-chemical-pigment end-use sales in 2003 are up a few percent. Sales of bismuth alloys in 2003 are also up a few percent. Bismuth replacement of toxic lead is still happening only slowly (see Issue 13). Sales of metallurgical additives in 2003 are flat compared to those of 2002.
A European Bismuth Product Maker: Overall bismuth sales in 2003 are about the same as in 2002. Sales in the pharmaceutical-chemical grouping in 2003 are also about the same as in 2002. Sales of bismuth alloys and solders in 2003 are again about the same as in 2002, as are those of metallurgical additives.
The next outlook issue, which will examine the outlook in detail by end-use category, will follow a news/data issue.