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A Taylor, Jr
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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Outlook Issue No. 15 January–March 2004
General Outlook for 2003: Overall bismuth sales in 2003 were slightly up from 2002. The bismuth consumption in 2003 for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use was about the same as in 2002. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics were weaker and yellow pigments were stronger. The consumption of bismuth alloys in 2003 (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, was up a few percent from 2002. The consumption in the metallurgical additives end-use in 2003 was almost unchanged from 2002.
New readers of BAN should also check the cover for “Early-Bird” Outlooks, Issue 15 for World Bismuth Mine Production statistics for 1997-2002 and the upcoming Issue 16 for U.S. consumption by end use, and the large body of information built up in the back issues, Issues 1 to 14.
Some scenarios for extensive bismuth substitution for toxic lead because of new environmental regulation appeared in my MJ-FT Bismuth report, especially for ammunition and plumbing-type uses. Little significant impact has occurred in subsequent bismuth statistics, so examining new recent USGS U.S. lead consumption statistics might be helpful:
1996(MJ) |
1999 |
2002!! |
|
|---|---|---|---|
Lead oxide (glass, ceramics) |
57,000 |
58,200 |
51,900 |
Solder, fusible alloys |
9,000 |
13,100 |
6,450 |
Sheet lead, pipes, traps |
15,800 |
13,620 |
27,850 |
Plumbing brasses, bronzes |
5,500 |
3,940 |
2,730 |
Ammunition |
52,000 |
58,300 |
57,600 |
The above substitution scenarios for bismuth or other potential substitutes for lead still have not begun, save-perhaps-for plumbing brasses, bronzes, and solders. The downward trend for bismuth prices in the last few years probably help, although the relative price of bismuth to lead and to other substitutes have not been considered.
Here is a review of world bismuth mine production statistics for 1997-2002 and a world total for refinery production; U.S. consumption by end use will be given as part of Issue 16, Detailed Outlook 2004 by end use, and world refinery production by country will be covered later.
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada |
196 |
186 |
264 |
202 |
258 |
189 |
China |
550 |
240 |
2680 |
1120 |
1250 |
1300 |
Mexico |
1642 |
1204 |
548 |
1112 |
1390 |
1200 |
Peru |
1000 |
1000 |
1000 |
1000 |
1000 |
1000 |
CIS |
170 |
155 |
185 |
185 |
205 |
200 |
Other |
932 |
1145 |
813 |
181 |
167 |
181 |
T. mine |
4490 |
3930 |
5490 |
3800 |
4270 |
4070 |
T. ref. |
4070 |
4330 |
3610 |
4220 |
5050 |
5190 |
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001, 91 in 2002 (final), and 109 in 2003 (semifinal). The New York Dealer Price for bismuth in the long term has been slowly but relentlessly going downward through late 2003 from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000, to $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, to $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May 2002, to $2.70-$3.10 in late November 2002, still at $2.70-$3.10 in February 2003, up to $2.80-$3.10 in June 2003, but to $2.65-$2.95 in early October, and to $2.60-$2.90 per pound in early December 2003.
The MBR Leading World Nonferrous Demand Index in September 2003 was 102.5, in October 2003 was 103.0, and in November 2003 was 103.2; this is clearly a positive trend compared to weaker numbers earlier in the year and in late 2002, but of course the series is much broader than bismuth.