Harold
A Taylor, Jr
President
News
Credentials
Services
Contact
(304) 725-6619
BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Detailed Outlook Issue No. 16 April – June 2004
This outlook is based on structured, in-depth conversations with well-placed industry observers, some preliminary statistics, and the professional judgment of the Editor/Publisher, Harold A. Taylor.
General Outlook for 2004: The general outlook for bismuth looks neutral for 2004, or level with 2003; overall bismuth sales in 2003 were up 2% from 2002. The outlook for indium and dimension stone is positive, as is the outlook for steel; even the outlook for graphite is neutral to slightly positive. Chinese activity will have an important effect on the bismuth outlook; some statistics and other information will appear in the next issue.
New readers of BAN should also check the cover for "Early-Bird" Outlooks, and the large body of information built up in the back issues, Issues 1 to 15.
Here is a review of U.S. bismuth consumption statistics by end use for 1997–2002, including a total. See Issue 15 for world mine production. World refinery production by country will be covered later.
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chemicals* |
655 |
884 |
855 |
861 |
805 |
813 |
Bismuth Alloys |
593 |
741 |
823 |
889 |
981 |
1070 |
Metallurgical Additives |
252 |
335 |
340 |
346 |
369 |
388 |
Other |
31 |
32 |
31 |
34 |
45 |
50 |
Total |
1530 |
1990 |
2050 |
2130 |
2200 |
2320 |
| * includes pharmaceuticals & cosmetics | ||||||
Outlook for chemicals: The bismuth outlook for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use, a major one, is that 2003 consumption was about the same as 2002 to down a few percent; 2004 consumption will be level at best, or more probably down a few percent, from 2003.
Outlook for bismuth alloys: The other major end-use, bismuth alloys (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, looks the most positive; 2003 consumption was up 2% to 3% from 2002, and 2004 consumption is likely to be up a percent or so from 2003. If toxic lead replacement accelerates, it could improve the outlook further. The bismuth market in galvanizing is growing but is a niche application (small volume) occurring when a more durable galvanizing is needed.
The outlook for the metallurgical additives end-use that gives free-machining properties to steel, aluminum, and some other metals is positive; consumption in 2003 was up 3% from 2002, and 2004 will be level with 2003.
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import-usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001, and 91 in 2002, and 109 in 2003 (semifinal). The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been relentlessly easing downward from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000 through $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, $2.90-$3.40 in late May 2002, $2.70-$3.10 in late November 2002 to February 2003, then to $2.65-2.95 in early October, and to $2.60-2.90 in early December 2003. A price hike occurred in late February 2004, and the price stayed level at $2.95-$3.25 through late March 2004; this hike may be partially due to Chinese activity and will be examined in detail with statistics next Issue.