Harold
A Taylor, Jr
President
News
Credentials
Services
Contact
(304) 725-6619
BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Issue No. 17 July – September 2004
General Outlook for 2004: Overall bismuth sales in 2003 were slightly up from 2002, and 2004 sales will likely be level with 2003. The bismuth consumption in 2003 for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use was about the same as in 2002 or slightly down; 2004 will be level to slightly down from 2003. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics were weaker and yellow pigments were stronger. The consumption of bismuth alloys in 2003 (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, was up 2% to 3% from 2002, and 2004 will be up another few percent from 2003. The consumption in the metallurgical additives end-use in 2003 was up 3% from 2002, and 2004 will be up a few percent from 2003.
New readers of BAN should also check the cover for "Early-Bird" Outlooks, Issue 15 for world bismuth mine production statistics for 1997-2002 and Issue 16 for U.S. consumption by end-use statistics for 1997-2002, and the large body of information built up in the back issues, Issues 1 to 16.
After having discussed in earlier issues the substitution of bismuth for toxic lead ad nauseum, a look at other possibly important new end-uses will be interesting. One is the use of bismuth oxide in electronic ceramics such as ferrites and ceramic capacitors to enhance their electronic properties, and the related use in soft ferrites for magnets and magnetic tape. Another use is in glass frit for electro-conductive glass in automobiles. Bismuth can be used to create improved free-cutting brasses. Some of these are getting in common use in Japan.
Here is a review of world bismuth refinery (metal) production statistics for [http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals] 1997-2002; U.S. consumption by end use was given as part of Issue 16, Detailed Outlook 2004 by end use, and world mine production in Issue 15.
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
|
| Belgium | 800 |
700 |
700 |
700 |
700 |
1000 |
| Canada | 250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
| China | 760 |
820 |
860 |
770 |
1230 |
1250 |
| Japan | 550 |
479 |
481 |
518 |
550 |
560 |
| Mexico | 990 |
1030 |
412 |
1083 |
1390 |
1200 |
| Peru | 774 |
832 |
705 |
744 |
640 |
650 |
| Other | xx2 |
m45 |
p13 |
u81 |
167 |
181 |
| Total | 4070 |
4330 |
3610 |
4220 |
5050 |
5190 |
In view of the activities of China in the minerals and metals markets, an examination of U.S. imports of bismuth from China would be interesting. In 2002, imports of Chinese bismuth were 393 tonnes worth $1.764 million, in 2003 were 573 tonnes worth $3.606 million, and in 2004 (an annualized estimate) were 413 tonnes worth $2.816 million. The value per pound was $2.04 in 2002, $2.86 in 2003, and $3.10 in 2004; note how this somewhat tracks the price.
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, 105 in 2001, 91 in 2002, 109 in 2003 (final), and 111 in 2004 (very preliminary). The New York Dealer Price for bismuth in the long term has been slowly but relentlessly going downward through late 2003 from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000, to $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, to $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May 2002, to $2.70-$3.10 from late November 2002 through mid2003, then up to $2.80-$3.10 in June 2003, to $2.65-$2.95 in early October, and to $2.60-$2.90 per pound in early December 2003. Continuing into 2004, the price was $2.95-$3.25 per pound in February through late March, $3.20-$3.50 in midMay, and $3.65 to $4.00 in midJune.
The MBR Leading World Nonferrous Demand Index in November 2003 was 103.4, in March 2004 jumped to 111.2, and in May 2004 was 108.3; a positive trend, but the series is much broader than bismuth.