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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Issue No. 2 January - February 2001
Outlook for bismuth, 2001: Consumption of bismuth in its traditional end uses has expanded fairly rapidly over the last decade, usually exceeding production; the balance has been met from various stockpiles, the most prominent being the U.S. Government's strategic stockpile. Beginning in 1996, some important new markets were opened for bismuth as a replacement for toxic lead. However, these important new markets do not appear to have opened yet to any significant degree. Any huge increase in consumption of bismuth probably awaits such developments. The bismuth content of the Peru lead ores has been dropping, leading to a declining output of bismuth metal. The critical factors in meeting demand will be Chinese sales of cheap bismuth metal and the presence or absence of Mexican-type disruptions. At this time, the U.S. economy is clearly weakening, and may be dragged down more by the California energy shortage. The USGS preliminary 2000 data should be out within a month, and it and another look at the U.S. economy should be in the next issue.
Bismuth price trends in 2000: From the yearend 1999 Metals Week NY Dealers price of $4.30 per pound, the price trended downwards in spite of a minor uptick to $3.53 per pound at midyear 2000, then hit a low of $3.05 per pound in early September. After the low, the price steadily rose until it hit a yearend 2000 high of $4.15 per pound. Metal Bulletin (January 8, 2001) expects a strong market in 2001; perhaps this will result in even higher prices, or at least no low in the $3.00 per pound range.
Some scenarios for extensive bismuth substitution for toxic lead because
of new environmental regulation appeared in my FT
Bismuth report. Little significant impact has occurred in subsequent
bismuth statistics, so an examination of recent USGS
lead consumption in the U.S. statistics might be helpful:
| 1996(FT) | 1999 | 2000 (est) | |
| Lead oxide (glass, ceramics) | 57,000 | 58,200 | 59,900 |
| Solder, fusible alloys | 9,000 | 13,100 | 9,600 |
| In electronics | 2,350 | 3,040 | NA |
| In plumbing | 1,650 | 2,450 | NA |
| Pipes, traps | 1,800 | 2,020 | 2,000 |
| Sheet lead in building | 14,000 | 11,600 | 11,600 |
| Plumbing brasses, bronzes | 5,500 | 3,940 | 5,000 |
| Ammunition | 52,000 | 58,300 | 63,000 |
Apparently the above scenarios have not set in to any degree yet in the U.S., thus confirming the bismuth numbers. Some international lead statistics of limited usefulness suggest that the scenarios have not taken hold yet in other major world economies either.