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BISMUTH ADVOCATE NEWS
Issue No. 9 June-August 2002
This issue will be an abbreviated summer issue. The Outlook Issue will be next.
General Outlook for 2002: Overall bismuth sales decreased slightly (2% to 3%) in 2001 from 2000, but might improve slowly in 2002 to a 3% increase by year-end, or 1% for the whole year average. This adjustment downward is mostly the result of the most recent bad news; perhaps here too we are waiting for the other shoe to drop. The preliminary bismuth consumption statistics now available have made some end-use outlook adjustments needed, although the import usage index and opinions of BAN observers are more influential. The bismuth outlook for the pharmaceutical-cosmetic-pigment-other-chemical end-use, where 2001 consumption (preliminary) may have been down 3% over 2000, should see some bounce-back in 2002. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics will be weaker and yellow pigments will be stronger. The outlook for bismuth alloys (fusible alloys and lead-free solders), including toxic lead replacement, falls in the middle; 2001 consumption (preliminary) was up about 9% (see note below) from 2000, but is likely to be slow growth in 2002 after that strong showing, particularly if slow-moving toxic lead replacement is slowed further by low lead prices. The outlook for the metallurgical additives end-use in 2002 must be exceedingly poor; total consumption in 2001 (preliminary) was up about 8% (see note below) of that in 2000; 2002 will see some sales loss-very substantial ones if the 2001 consumption is anywhere near being accurate. All the information other than the metallurgical additives end-use consumption points down.
The news since the Detailed Outlook (last) issue has been negative; the bismuth price has continued to ease in the last few months (see below), and increased Chinese production is meeting weak world demand. Doe Run Co. has managed to restructure its outstanding debt, after defaulting on the previous payment.
Statistical Parameters: A U.S. import usage index was 100 in 1999, 114 in 2000, and 105 in complete 2001 preliminary data. Since the index for 2001 was 112 before, the additional data shows 2001 in a worse light. The New York Dealer Price for bismuth has been slowly easing downward from $3.85-$4.15 per pound at year-end 2000, to $3.55-$3.90 in mid-year 2001, to $3.25-$3.60 in early January 2002, and to $2.90-$3.40 per pound in late May, 2002.
NOTE regarding preliminary consumption figures: reports from observers and steel outlook suggest these numbers may be in error.