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DIMENSION STONE ADVOCATE NEWS
Outlook Reexamined Issue No. 22 November – December 2005
Statistical Parameters: (a) Sales related-demand. The Overall Production-Demand Index was 100 for 1997, 126 for 1998, 144 for 1999, 164 for 2000, 177 for 2001, 190 for 2002, 221 for 2003, 278 for 2004, and 304 for 2005 (preliminary). The Granite Countertop Demand Index was 100 in 1997, 143 in 1998, 182 in 1999, 263 in 2000, 290 in 2001, 354 in 2002, 452 in 2003, 715 in 2004, and 824 in 2005 (preliminary). The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile was 100 in 1997, 117 in 1998, 123 in 1999, 145 in 2000, 153 in 2001, 169 in 2002, 199 in 2003, 260 in 2004, and 315 in 2005 (preliminary).
(b) Sales related-price. Granite Countertop Prices (index) was 100 in 2003, 99 in First Half 2004, 106 in Second Half 2004, and 92 in First Half 2005. Marble Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2003, 105 in First Half 2004, 104 in Second Half 2004, and 108 in First Half 2005. Granite Tile Prices Index) was 100 in 2003, 80 in First Half 2004, 100 in Second Half 2004, and 81 in First Half 2005.
(c) Foreign-U.S. Competition-related: Europe-U.S. situation: The strong Euro has become an ongoing part of our economic life: the Euros per U.S. dollar (average) rate was 0.94 in 1999, 1.09 in 2000, 1.12 in 2001, 1.06 in 2002, 0.89 in 2003, and 0.81 in 2004; 0.77 in 4Q 2004, 0.76 in 1Q 2005, and 0.79 in 2Q 2005. These International Monetary Fund statistics show that foreign producers selling in Euros have lost their competitive advantage in the U.S. beginning in late 2002 and it has stayed lost. So exporting Euro-area producers are now under a continuing disadvantage from the strong Euro.
Canada-U.S. situation: The Canadian dollar per U.S. dollar (average) was 1.48 in 1998, 1.49 in 1999, 1.49 in 2000, 1.55 in 2001, 1.57 in 2002, 1.40 in 2003, and 1.30 in 2004; in 4Q 2004 it was 1.22, in 1Q 2005 was 1.23, and in 2Q 2005 was 1.24. The situation here is much less extreme, although it does resemble the Euro situation.
ARCHITECT'S STONE SELECTION HELPER (ASSH): This is a listing of large stone photo caches on the internet. ASSH will allow an architect to start a preliminary winnowing out of desired stones by color and appearance, depending on the usability of the computer file photos/suitability of photos permitting (Antolini is in Flash). Photos and samples of the most likely stones can then be obtained. A good source of such photos and accompanying technical data is the Marble Institute of America's Natural Stone Gallery, which covers 480 stones of all kinds (including granite, limestone, slate, and sandstone). ASSH will continue to be expanded and elaborated in future issues. The reader should also examine the ASTM C1528 Standard Guide for Selection of Dimension Stone for Exterior Use.
The photo caches:
(U.S.) www.coldspringgranite.com
(U.S.) www.walkerzanger.com
(Italy) www.fontanili.it
(Italy) www.antolini.it
(U.S.) www.ncgranite.com
(U.S.) www.dakgran.com
(Italy) www.euromarbleitaly.com
(India) www.tirupati-impex.com
(Brazil) www.riosegran.com.br
(Greece) www.iktinos.gr
(Iran) www.farasouy.com
(Egypt) www.marmonil.com
(U.S.) www.evergreenslate.com
(Canada) www.polycor.com
Announcement: In a year, there will be two "Early-Birds", one "Late-Bird", and one "Pulsetaking" on the cover and four commodity-specific issues such as this: two outlook issues and two news-statistics issues.
Stone Business has issued its 2005 Buyer's Directory in July; it features stone fabricators/installers and stone suppliers around the world.
The U.S. market conditions and outlook for 2005 reported by our observers is as follows:
A Prominent Elberton Source (granite): Monumental stone sales in 2005 are up 7% from 2004. Curbing granite sales in 2005 are about the same as in 2004. Granite countertop sales in 2005 are up 12% to 14% over 2004. Polycor (Quebec) has a contract with an Elberton firm to furnish it with six kinds of Canadian granite rough blocks for finishing, in a plan to expand its U.S. market.
A Prominent Indiana Limestone Source: Overall 2005 Indiana limestone sales are up about 2%-3% over 2004.
An Indiana Limestone Producer: Limestone sales in 2005 are about the same as 2004, but again they could have sold more stone, if they could have found trucks to move it. However, other Indiana limestone firms had 2005 sales up 4% to 6% from 2004.
A Midwest Granite Producer: Building granite sales in 2005 are level with those of 2004. Granite countertop sales in 2005 are up 20% from 2004. Monumental sales in 2004 are level with those of 2004; sales are being lost to cremation. Residential sales in 2005 are even stronger than in 2004. U.S. firms are wholesaling more and more finished Chinese stone imports.
A Midwest Granite Producer: Granite countertop sales in 2005 are up 7% to 12% from 2004. Monumental granite sales in 2005 are up 10% from 2004. Sales of estate mausoleums have grown very hot in 2005. Granite rough block sales in 2005 are level with 2004. Granite cut-to-size sales in 2005 are up 3% from 2004.
An East Coast Granite Producer: Sales of cut-to-size and architectural granite in 2005 are down 15% from 2004, but there are signs of a major upturn in 2006. Granite curbing sales in 2005 are down by 15% from 2004, which was mostly caused by a delay in Congressional appropriations. Export block sales in 2005 were up 35% from 2004, but the Chinese government is pressuring Chinese manufacturers to use domestic granites. The granite countertop market may be starting to go two tier: the cheap stuff with eroding prices, and the fancy granites with increasing prices and faster growing demand. Granite countertops may have opened the eyes of the average U.S. consumer to the beauty of stone, opening markets for other stone items like tile: If beautiful countertops why not beautiful floors?
An East Coast Granite Producer: Sales of monumental granite products in 2005 are up 7% to 8% from 2004, but 2005 retail monument sales are up only 5% over 2004. Granite curbing sales in 2005 are level with 2004; local governments are under increasing financial pressure. Granite landscaping stone sales in 2005 are up 5% from 2004. Granite countertop pricing is still cut-throat on the retail level. The price of energy is increasing manufacturing and transportation costs, and the consumer is getting cautious; widespread uncertainty is seen. Consolidations and acquisitions in the Elberton and Barre granite firms are way down.
An East Coast Slate Source: Sales in 2005 of slate products are up 15% from 2004; some long-pending big jobs came in. Penn Big Bed Slate Co. bought out A. Dally & Sons (slate) Inc.
A Sandstone Producer: Building stone (windows, ashlar, capstones) sales in 2005 are level with 2004, but Fourth Quarter sales are worrisome. Flagstone sales in 2005 are level with 2004. Residential (general) sales in 2005 are about level with 2004. The backlog is about ten days now.
An Importer of Marble and Granite: Overall sales in 2005 are up 12%-15% from 2004; (countertop) slab sales in 2005 are up 10%-15% from 2004. China and India are now the price setters for granite countertops: Brazil and the Europeans follow. Marble tile prices are up a bit, allowing nonEuropean sellers to gain. The residential market in 2005 is up from 2004 to an extent similar to that of 2004 from 2003.