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DIMENSION STONE ADVOCATE NEWS

Outlook Reexamined Issue No. 29 November – December 2007

Statistical Parameters: (a) Sales related-demand.  The Overall Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997 was 221 for 2003, 277 for 2004, 312 for 2005, 355 for 2006, and 360 for 2007 (advanced).  The Granite Countertop Demand Index based on 100 in 1997 was 452 in 2003, 715 in 2004, 867 in 2005, 1081 in 2006 (final), and 1072 in 2007 (advanced).  The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile based on 100 in 1997 was 199 in 2003, 260 in 2004, 336 in 2005, 414 in 2006 (final), and 469 in 2007 (advanced).

(b) Sales related-price.  Granite Countertop Prices (index) was 100 in 2005, 99 in First Half 2006, 106 in Second Half 2006, and 92 in First Half 2007.  Marble Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2005, 105 in First Half 2006, 104 in Second Half 2006, and 108 in First Half 2007.  Granite Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2005, 80 in First Half 2006, 100 in Second Half 2006, and 81 in First Half 2007.

(c) Foreign-U.S. Competition-related:  Europe-U.S. situation: The strong Euro has become an ongoing part of our economic life: the Euros per U.S. dollar (average) rate was 1.06 in 2002, 0.89 in 2003, 0.81 in 2004, 0.80 in 2005, and 0.80 in 2006; 0.78 in 4Q 2006, 0.76 in 1Q 2007, and 0.74 in 2Q 2007.  These International Monetary Fund statistics show that foreign producers selling in Euros have lost their former competitive advantage in the U.S. beginning in late 2002 and it has stayed lost.  So exporting Euro-area producers are under a continuing disadvantage from the strong Euro.

Canada-U.S. situation: The Canadian dollar per U.S. dollar (average) was 1.57 in 2002, 1.40 in 2003, 1.30 in 2004, 1.21 in 2005, and 1.13 in 2006; in 4Q 2006 it was 1.14, in 1Q 2007 was 1.17, and in 2Q 2007 was 1.10.  The situation here is persistent, resembling the Euro situation.

A useful measure of the world demand for granite and marble (shown above) is the total finished granite or marble exported by some major exporting countries--Brazil, Italy, Spain, and China--for finished granite and Turkey, Italy, Spain, and China for finished marble.  This measure shows the growth in demand since 2000 (2000 is the base year, 2000=100).  Using an interest table to obtain an average annual increase, world granite demand has risen about 15% each year for the period 2000-2006, and world marble demand has risen about 12% each year in the same period.

The Overall Dim. Stone Adj. is the (U.S.) Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index recalculated on a 2000=100 basis.

New readers of DSAN should also check the cover for “Early-Bird”, “Pulsetaking”, and “Late-Bird” Outlooks, and the large body of information built up in the back issues, Issues 1 to 28.  See Issue 20 for data for earlier years.

Readers may have wondered about the infrequency of DSAN and its indexes: this reflects when and how data becomes available-very slowly and incompletely.  For indexes, erratic and therefore deceptive monthly U.S. trade data has to be considered for a number of months combined together to smooth out odd fluctuations.  The U.S. trade data comes out two months after the actual (designated) month.  The Dimension Stone chapter and data of the 2006 USGS Minerals Yearbook was released in October 2007.  IMM Carrara's "Stone Sector 2006" had undifferentiated (i.e., no breakouts for marble and granite) 2006 dimension stone production data for 25 nations, released in June 2007.  IMM Carrara had 2006 data breakouts for a very few nations on its website in June-July 2007, and will have data from more nations in June-July 2008.

Clic on icon for Architect's Stone Selection Helper and its trove of stone photos for quick and convenient use by those needing to quickly and conveniently examine many stones by color and appearance before selection of a few alternates. 

Building Green Update for Dimension Stone: The International Masonry Institute has opened a large USGBC-certified craft training complex (i.e. for stone masons) in Bowie MD that will accomodate 2,000 students annually.  The Natural Stone Council's Committee on Sustainability is conducting a Life Cycle Inventory for natural stone that will provide a cradle-to-grave analysis of the energy and materials flows (i.e. input materials and wastes) entering and leaving the environment.

Visit Wikipedia's “Dimension Stone” wiki for background information on the major applications, plus linked wikis for "Countertop" and “Tile”, and for the major stones.  It also covers “Building green”, stone recycling and reuse, and stone selection and cleaning.

Stone Business has issued its 2007 Buyer's Directory in July 2007; it features stone fabricators/installers and stone suppliers around the world.
     
The U.S. market conditions and outlook for 2007 reported by our observers, and for 2006 reported close to a year before, is as follows:

A Prominent Elberton Source (granite): Monumental stone sales in 2007 were flat with 2006; 2006 were up 3% from 2005.  Curbing granite sales in 2007 are down 4%-5% from 2006; 2006 were about the same as in 2005.  Granite countertop sales in 2007 are up 5%-6% from 2006; 2006 were up 10% over 2005.
A Prominent Indiana Limestone Source: Overall 2007 Indiana limestone sales are up 2%-3% over 2006; 2006 were up about 4%-5% over 2005.

An Indiana Limestone Producer: Limestone sales in 2007 are down 15% from 2006; 2006 were about the same as 2005.  However, other Indiana limestone firms have 2007 sales level with 2006; 2006 sales were up 5% from 2005.

A Midwest Granite Producer: Building granite sales in 2007 are down 5%-8% from 2006; 2006 were up 5% from those of 2005.  Granite countertop sales in 2007 are down 5% from 2006; 2006 were up 3%-4% from 2005.  Monumental sales in 2007 are down 6% from 2006; 2006 were up 2%-3% from those of 2005.  Residential stone sales in 2007 are up 3% from 2006; 2006 were up around 2% from 2005.

A Midwest Granite Producer: Granite countertop sales in 2007 are down 13% from 2006; 2006 were up 10% from 2005.  Monumental granite sales in 2007 are up 20% from 2006; 2006 were up 15% from 2005.  Granite rough block sales in 2007 are down 5% from 2006; 2006 were level with 2005.

An East Coast Granite Producer:  Sales of cut-to-size and architectural granite in 2007 are up 28% from 2006; 2006 were up 5% from 2005.  Granite curbing sales in 2007 are up 13% from 2006; 2006 were up 10% from 2005.  Export block sales in 2007 are up 20%-23% from 2006; 2006 sales were about the same as 2005. 

An East Coast Granite Producer:  Sales of monumental granite products in 2007 are up 6%-8% over 2006; 2006 were about the same as 2005.  Retail monument sales in 2007 are up 2%-3% from 2006; 2006 were about the same as 2005.  Granite curbing sales in 2007 are up 10% over 2006; 2006 were up 2%-3% from 2005.  Granite landscaping stone sales in 2007 are level with 2006; 2006 sales were up 5% from 2005.

An East Coast Slate Source: Sales of slate products in 2007 are down 5% from 2006; 2006 sales were up 5% from 2005.

A Sandstone Producer: Building stone (windows, ashlar, capstones) sales in 2007 are down 5% from 2006; 2006 were down 5% from 2005.  Flagstone sales in 2007 are down 15% from 2006; 2006 were down 10% from 2005.  Residential (general) stone sales in 2007 are down 10% from 2006; 2006 sales were down 10% from 2005.

An Importer of Marble and Granite: Overall sales in 2007 are up 10% from 2006; 2006 were up 5%-10% from 2005; (countertop) slab sales in 2007 are up 5% from 2006; 2006 were up 5% from 2005.  Residential stone sales in 2007 are up 10% from 2006.  The residential stone market in 2006 was up but less than in 2005.  In the present (weak) real estate market, you have to have installed granite countertops and marble vanity tops to be able to sell a house.

The observers are consistently reporting weaker 2007 sales for almost all products than they did for the identical product 2006 sales a year ago, with very few exceptions.  When the raw import data for the indexes were examined by quarter and product, 1Q 2007 was worse than 2Q 2007, especially for granite, and even 2Q did not show any recovery for granite compared to an average quarterly level for 2006.  Marble also swooned a little in 1Q 2007.  Every stone did very well in 3Q 2007, and granite regained some of the lost ground vis a vis the other stones.

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