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DIMENSION STONE ADVOCATE NEWS
Detailed Outlook Issue No. 30 May 2008
Please also see the new Basics/Mines blog for the most current updates.
This outlook is based on structured, in-depth conversations with well-placed industry observers, some preliminary statistics, and the professional judgment of the Publisher/Editor, Harold A. Taylor.
General 2008 Outlook: The Overall Production-Demand Index showed that overall 2007 U.S. dimension stone sales were up only 3% from 2006. Residential real estate prices have not bottomed yet. Chinese imports continue to pressure parts of the U.S. granite monument, tile, and slate markets. These are all the marks of an unsettled and off-year for 2008.
New readers of DSAN should also check the cover for “Early-Bird”, “Pulsetaking”, and “Late-Bird” Outlooks, and the large body of information built up in the back issues, Issues 1 to 29. See Issue 20 for data for earlier years.
Click on icon for Architect's Stone Selection Helper and its trove of stone photos for quick and convenient use by architects and others needing to quickly and conveniently examine many stones by color and appearance before selection of a few alternates.
Residential dimension stone sales in 2007 were up 5% from 2006, although a minority of observers had weaker sales. Residential stone sales in 2008 will be down 5% overall from 2007, and even more weakness will not be uncommon.
Outlook for granite memorials and monuments: This includes mausoleums and other stone funeral products. Sales of high-end monuments such as those with non-polished finishes and intricate designs continued to be quite strong, as are intricate civic memorials. Sales of domestic monumental granite in 2007 were level with 2006, and 2008 is likely to be up 1% over 2007. A significant volume of imports of finished granite monuments continued to be present.
Outlook for granite building stone and countertops: This includes veneer, cut-to-size, and ashlar (kitchen countertops, see below). Building granite sales in 2008 will likely be up 2% over 2007. The 2008 outlook by the DSAN observers for granite kitchen countertops is for sales likely to be down 2% from 2007; 2007 was roughly level with 2006. The 2007 Granite Countertop Demand Index was down 2% from 2006.
Outlook for dimension stone tile: This includes mostly granite and marble, almost all imported but some domestic, and of various sizes and thicknesses. The Tile Demand Index showed that sales in 2007 for granite and marble tile were up around 14% from 2006. Even though marble tile is likely to do well in comparison with other dimension stone items, the observers indicate this is quite high; 2008 sales are more likely to be up 8% to 10% from 2007.
Outlook for Indiana limestone: This is the major U.S. limestone and is made into products including cut-to-size panels or veneer, lintels, sills, stair treads, ashlar, and cubic stock. Sales in 2007 were level with 2006. Indiana limestone sales in 2008 will likely be down 4% from 2007.
Outlook for worked slate (including roofing slate): Sales of domestic slate in 2007 were down about 22% from 2006. Sales of domestic slate in 2008 are likely to be down an additional 10% from 2007. Imports of slate were down 8% in 2007 from 2006.
Outlook for other dimension stone: This would include sandstone, bluestone, flagstone (misc.), and marble (not tile). Sales in 2007 were level with 2006. Sales in 2008 are likely to be down 10% from 2007.
Building Green Update for Dimension Stone: European scientists have developed a new, greener, more environmentally friendly technique to remove the black gypsum crusts that form on limestone and marble building exteriors because of sulfur dioxide attack that hitherto have had to be removed by strong chemicals. The new technique utilizes sulfate-reducing bacteria applied to the stone, which transforms the crust into gases while leaving the naturally-aged surface patina untouched.
Current Statistical Parameters: (a) Sales related-demand. The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997, was 277 for 2004, 312 for 2005, 355 for 2006, and 365 for 2007 (semifinal).
The Demand Index for Granite Countertops based on 100 for 1997, was 715 in 2004, 867 in 2005, 1081 in 2006, and 1066 in 2007 (final). The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile based on 100 for 1997, was 260 in 2004, 336 in 2005, 414 in 2006, and 473 in 2007 (final).
(b) Sales related-price. Granite Countertop Prices (index) was 100 in 2005, 103 in 1st Half 2006, 90 in 2nd Half 2006, 90 in 1st Half 2007, and 135 in 2nd Half 2007. Marble Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2005, 101 in 1st Half 2006, 105 in 2nd Half 2006, 107 in 1st Half 2007, and 113 in 2nd Half 2007. Granite Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2005, 185 in 1st Half 2006, 132 in 2nd Half 2006, 74 in 1st Half 2007, and 67 in 2nd Half 2007.