Harold
A Taylor, Jr
President
News
Credentials
Services
Contact
(304) 725-6619
DIMENSION STONE ADVOCATE NEWS
Outlook Issue No. 4a May 2001
Outlook for dimension stone, 2001: See Issue 3. The general outlook will be revised in Issue 5 to reflect the new information in this issue. After Issue 6 or 7, there will be another set of outlooks, this time by major products (i.e., granite monuments, tile, roofing slate).
Before beginning, I would belatedly remind you of the upcoming major Italian stone show at Carrara: Internazionale Marmi e Macchine, from May 31 to June 3. Very worthwhile; marmi covers marble, granite, limestone, sandstone, and slate, plus others. Will be roughly same time in 2002.
The U.S. market conditions and outlook for 2001 reported by our observers is as follows:
Common findings: Overall 2001 sales up 7% to 10% over early 2000. Unusually severe 2000-01 winter hampered operations and customer flow. Imports of very cheap Chinese granite tile and cheap Chinese red and black finished granite monuments are taking sales away and driving prices down, mostly displacing similar Indian monuments, and driving the price of South African black granite down. When observers concur with these findings, it will be noted.
Observers:
A Prominent Elberton Source (granite): Concurs on sales, winter, and imports. Backlogs have been steady. The monumental market is strong and especially so for high-ticket items such as private (family) mausoleums. Sales volume is excellent, but profits may be down in many firms. The curbing market is good, and uses up less high quality rough granite.
Cold Spring Granite: Concurs on sales, winter, and imports. Sales are particularly strong for smaller buildings, granite building products with finishes other than polished, and monuments utilizing two or more finishes. Other monumental sales have been slow, but are expected to pick up.
Dakota Granite: Concurs on winter and imports. Tile sales have been slow because of imports, and monumental sales are slightly slow; sales should pick up with better weather. Sales of granite countertops are doing quite well.
Georgia Marble: Concurs on sales. Restoration projects are becoming important for marble. Imports of marble tile, especially from Mexico, China, and Italy, are providing strong competition. Monument sales (granite and marble) are doing well, though.
North Carolina Granite: Had no real problem with winter. Sales started to soften in mid-2000, but softening did not accelerate; sales are no more than 5% off what they were in early 2000. Export sales of rough blocks went down to a significant degree, and are still so. Sales of building products such as cut-to-size and countertops have been stronger and curbing weaker. Competition from imports is not a problem. Product prices seem to be eroding.
Rock of Ages: Concurs on winter and imports. Earnings projections per share are as follows: for year 2001 +$0.61 compared to Year 2000 +$0.33. These earnings cover everything and not just rough granite and finished monumental granite items. Demand for monuments has been stable overall, but has been shifting towards higher value often customized monuments. Overall sales appear to be getting stronger as 2001 progresses, although increased inside-company manufacturing sales complicate the picture. Export sales of rough granite blocks have been doing well, especially to Asia.
Vetter Stone (limestone): Sales have been steady but up slightly in 2001. The backlog has been relatively unchanging. Warm colors sell particularly well.
Outlook Issue will continue next time.