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DIMENSION STONE ADVOCATE NEWS
Outlook Reexamined 2008 Issue No. 31 January 2009
The latest statistics are now updated on the Basics/Mines blog.
This outlook is based on structured, in-depth conversations with well-placed industry observers, some preliminary statistics, and the professional judgment of the Publisher/Editor, Harold A. Taylor.
Statistical Parameters: (a) Sales related-demand. The Overall Production-Demand Index based on 100 for 1997 was 277 for 2004, 312 for 2005, 355 for 2006, 365 for 2007 (semifinal), and 336 for 2008 (advanced preliminary). The Granite Countertop Demand Index based on 100 in 1997 was 715 in 2004, 867 in 2005, 1081 in 2006, 1066 in 2007 (final), and 965 in 2008 (advanced preliminary). The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile based on 100 in 1997 was 260 in 2004, 336 in 2005, 414 in 2006, 473 in 2007 (final), and 434 in 2008 (advanced preliminary).
(b) Sales related-price. Granite Countertop Prices (index) was 100 in 2006, 94 in First Half 2007, 141 in Second Half 2007, and 126 in First Half 2008. Marble Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2006, 105 in First Half 2007, 110 in Second Half 2007, and 125 in First Half 2008. Granite Tile Prices (index) was 100 in 2006, 48 in First Half 2007, 44 in Second Half 2007, and 94 in First Half 2008.
(c) Foreign-U.S. Competition-related: Europe-U.S. situation: The euros per U.S. dollar (average) rate was 1.06 in 2002, 0.89 in 2003, 0.81 in 2004, 0.80 in 2005, 0.80 in 2006, and 0.73 in 2007; 0.69 in 4Q 2007, 0.67 in 1Q 2008, and 0.64 in 2Q 2008. In the midst of this economic crisis, it is impossible to make any valid statement about competitive advantage.
Canada-U.S. situation: The Canadian dollar per U.S. dollar (average) was 1.57 in 2002, 1.40 in 2003, 1.30 in 2004, 1.21 in 2005, 1.13 in 2006, and 1.07 in 2007; in 4Q 2007 it was 0.98, in 1Q 2008 was 1.00, and in 2Q 2008 was 1.01. The situation here resembles the Euro situation.
| Year/Anno | 2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRANITE/GRANITO | |||||
| Median | 134 |
161 |
194 |
222 |
246 |
| Average | 125 |
161 |
190 |
227 |
249 |
MARBLE/MARMO |
|||||
| Median | 193 |
237 |
293 |
338 |
401 |
| Average | 122 |
144 |
166 |
196 |
245 |
A useful measure of the world demand for granite and marble (shown above) is the total finished granite or marble exported by some major exporting countries--Brazil, Italy, Spain, and China--for finished granite and Turkey, Italy, Spain, and China for finished marble. This measure shows the growth in demand since 2000 (2000 is the base year, 2000=100). Using an interest table to obtain an average annual increase, world granite demand has risen about 14% each year for the period 2000-2007, and world marble demand has risen about 13.7% each year in the same period.
A comparable index for ceramic tile demand (year 2000=100 base), was 158 in 2005, 165 in 2006, and 72 in 2007. This is an annual demand drop of about 4.8% per year for the period 2000-2007.
New readers of DSAN should also check the cover for “Early-Bird”, “Pulsetaking”, and “Late-Bird” Outlooks, and the large body of information built up in the back issues, Issues 1 to 30. See Issue 20 for data for earlier years.
The Building Green update: The REGREEN remodeling guidelines announced earlier this year by the American Society of Interior Designers Foundation and the U.S. Building Green Council are influencing more and more remodeling projects by homeowners, especially in remodeling kitchens with stone floor tile and countertops and bathrooms with stone vanities and floors, not to mention relandscaping with locally-sourced stone pavers, drywall, flagstone, and large completely natural boulders or ledges.
Check Architect's Stone Selection Helper and its trove of stone photos for quick and convenient use by architects and others needing to quickly and conveniently examine many stones by color and appearance before selection of a few alternates.
Wikipedia's "Dimension Stone" entry is the most easily-available and comprehensive reference existing on dimension stone, covering the major applications, stone recycling and reuse, "building green" with dimension stone, and stone cleaning and selection, plus linked wikis for "Countertop" and "Tile", and for the major stones.
Stone Business has issued its 2008 Buyer's Directory in July 2008; it features stone fabricators/installers and stone suppliers around the world.
The U.S. market conditions and outlook for 2008 reported by our observers, and for 2007 reported close to a year before, is as follows:
A Prominent Elberton Source (granite): Monumental stone sales in 2008 are down 5% from 2007; 2007 were flat with 2006. Curbing granite sales in 2008 are level with 2007; 2007 were down 4%-5% from 2006. Granite countertop sales in 2008 are down 2%-3% from 2007; 2007 were up 5%-6% over 2006.
A Prominent Indiana Limestone Source: Overall 2008 Indiana limestone sales are down 3% from 2007; 2007 sales were up about 2%-3% over 2006.
An Indiana Limestone Producer: Limestone sales in 2008 are down 20% from 2007; 2007 were down 15% from 2006. However, other Indiana limestone firms have 2008 sales down 5%-10% from 2007; 2007 sales were level with 2006.
A Midwest Granite Producer: Building granite sales in 2008 are up 5% from 2007; 2007 sales were down 5%-8% from those of 2006. Granite countertop sales in 2008 are down 15% from 2007; 2007 sales were down 5% from 2006. Monumental sales in 2008 are down 10% from 2007; 2007 sales were down 6% from those of 2006. Residential stone sales in 2008 are down 15% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 3% from 2006.
A Midwest Granite Producer: Granite countertop sales in 2008 are down 15% from 2006; 2007 sales were down 13% from 2006. Monumental granite sales in 2008 are up 15% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 20% from 2006. Granite rough block sales in 2007 are down 5% from 2006; 2007 sales were down 5% from 2006.
An East Coast Granite Producer: Sales of cut-to-size and architectural granite in 2008 are up 15% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 28% from 2006. Granite curbing sales in 2008 are up 5% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 13% from 2006. Export block sales in 2008 are up 100% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 20%-23% from 2006.
An East Coast Granite Producer: Sales of monumental granite products in 2008 are up 10% over 2007; 2007 sales were up 6%-8% over 2006. Granite curbing sales in 2008 are down 10% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 10% from 2006. Granite landscaping stone sales in 2008 are up 3%-5% from 2007; 2007 sales were level with 2006.
An East Coast Slate Source: Sales of slate products in 2008 are down 10% from 2007; 2007 sales were down 5% from 2006.
A Sandstone Producer: Building stone (windows, ashlar, capstones) sales in 2007 are down 15% from 2007; 2007 sales were down 5% from 2006. Residential (general) stone sales in 2008 are down 15% from 2007; 2007 sales were down 10% from 2006.
An Importer of Marble and Granite: Overall sales in 2008 are down 2%-3% from 2007; 2007 were up 10% from 2006; (countertop) slab sales in 2008 are down 10% from 2007; 2007 sales were up 5% from 2006. Residential stone sales in 2008 are down 2%-3% from 2007. The residential stone market in 2007 was up 10% from 2006.
Granite countertop sales are especially weak for common or basic colors, sales are also down because of the radon scare. The 1Q U.S. 2008 imports for marble and granite were both weak, but the 2Q and 3Q were much, almost identically, stronger.
Welcome to Dimension Stone Advocate News (DSAN). DSAN will appear on a frequent but irregular basis and has been designed to quickly update busy executives and professionals on dimension stone-related developments, usually with a reference to where the item appeared so that more information can be obtained if needed.