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INDIUM ADVOCATE NEWS
Issue No. 3 March - April 2001
Outlook for indium, 2001: While consumption of indium appears to have been expanding rapidly in much of 2000, particularly in flat panel screens, the presently-unknown numbers for late 2000 may not have been nearly as rosy. Sales of internet-related items, such as handheld computers, lap-top computers, and cellular phones, did not meet expectations in latter 2000, cratering many of the NASDAQ (and other) stocks of the firms producing them or involved with them: certainly an ominous development, but strong indium demand may have lagged behind this event. At this time, the U.S. economy is clearly weakening, particularly in the areas that use indium like LCDs and flat-panel screens. Next time we will give 2001 outlooks from actual market participants.
The USGS preliminary statistics for 2000 show U.S. indium consumption for 2000 was 55 tonnes, compared to 52 tonnes in 1999; this is probably an undercount resulting from the use of statistics that cover a smaller part of 2000 than the statistics used here to estimate demand in the last issue. World indium production was given at 220 tonnes for 2000, compared to 215 tonnes for 1999; this severe undercount resulted from a magnification of the above problem. The most badly undercounted country for 2000 was probably China; export statistics suggest Chinese production was 80 tonnes minimum; accurate information on China is hard and slow to come by. The average annual indium price was $188 per kilogram in 2000, compared to $303 per kg. in 1999; this preceeded a huge drop to the $85-90 per kg. price of January 2001.
In January 2001, AXT Inc. announced a new generation of green LEDs based on aluminum indium gallium nitride with twice the output power (brightness) of current LEDs. This greatly improved LED should obtain a larger share of the rapidly growing outdoor and indoor display markets. The firm's indium phosphide substrate business has experienced dramatic growth during 2000, as the fiber optic industry moves from a 10 GB data rate transmission to a 40 GB rate and finds that indium phosphide in larger 3 in. and 4 in. wafer diameters is the best option to meet the higher performance requirements.
Kazakhstan Mystery: In my FT Indium report, I mentioned that there were indium-recovery circuits at Chymkent, and at Kaztsink's Ust Kamenogorsk and Leninogorsk operations that could be upgraded by new managements then taking over, perhaps with some investment. The U.S., Japanese and German import statistics for 1999 and most of 2000 (first half 2000 for Germany) show no indium imports from Kazakhstan. Published reports believed to be accurate indicate capacity expansions and improvements in zinc and lead production, the principal products of which indium is a byproduct. Kazakhstan zinc production is said to be around 250,000 tonnes; preliminary U.S. import statistics for zinc metal from Kazakhstan for 2000 show just under 70,000 tonnes, Germany imported around 11,000 tonnes annualized (half year of statistics), and Japan nothing through October. Since these are the three largest world importers of zinc, and Kazakhstan consumes little itself, this production could be significantly overstated. The Kaztsink expansion and improvement plans seem to be meeting delays, at the least. The indium circuits must not be running, nor the bismuth (see Bismuth Advocate News).