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Detailed Outlook for 2005: “Early Bird”
Issue H • April 2005
The year 2005 should be generally a good year, in spite of the series of Fed interest-rate hikes that began in mid-2004 and are likely to continue, possibly clouding the outlook later in 2005. The 2005 outlook for dimension stone and indium goes from strength to strength. The outlook for bismuth and graphite is neutral to mildly positive. The 2005 outlook for steel is again positive, but not quite as good as 2004.
The dimension stone outlook for 2005: Overall U.S. dimension stone sales in 2005 are expected to be universally very strong when compared to 2004, which the demand index showed up 24% from 2003. Even those that have been no growth or slow growth will be up in 2005: domestic granite monuments are likely to be up 8%, slate (domestic) up 5%, Indiana limestone up 4%, and sandstone up a percent or so. Again, granite countertop sales should go from strength to strength in 2005 according to our observers, up 15%-25% from 2004. Standard granite and marble tile sales will be up a few percent, but specialty (premium stones, different finishes) tile sales up much much more.
Dimension stone statistical review for 2004: The Overall Dimension Stone Production-Demand Index was 190 for 2002, 221 for 2003, and 274 for 2004 (semifinal). Overall U.S. dimension stone demand in 2004 appears to be up 24% from 2003. The Demand Index for Granite Countertops was 452 in 2003 and 691 in 2004 (semifinal). The Demand Index for Granite and Marble Tile was 199 in 2003 and 256 in 2004 (semifinal).
Year 2002 |
1st Half 2003 |
2nd Half 2003 |
1st Half 2004 |
Late 2004 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Granite countertops |
100 |
79 |
89 |
83 |
94r |
Marble tile |
100 |
110 |
113 |
117 |
120r |
Granite tile |
100 |
190 |
117 |
114 |
154r |
The indexes are based on wholesale-level prices, the value in dollars per tonne at the (foreign) point of origin. See discussion of prices by observers in recent issues.
The general outlook for graphite again looks positive for 2005, with overall sales up 2% from 2004. In the strongest 2005 demand for graphite in end-uses, in rubber and plastics, sales will be up 6% from 2004. The 2005 graphite demand in most other end uses will be up 3%-4% in sales from 2004, except for demand in brake linings, which will be down 2%. Continuing demand growth by the Chinese graphite-consuming steel industry will certainly help world graphite markets.
Steel should have an almost-as-good 2005 after a great 2004. AISI statistics are quite positive; for the whole year of 2004, total steel shipped was up 5.8% from the same period in 2003.
Indium demand in 2005 should go from strength to strength because of continuing strong demand for flat panel screens for TVs and laptops; worldwide ITO sales in 2005 should be up around 30% from 2004 by volume. Demand for indium alloys and solders in 2005 will also be very strong worldwide because of growth in the lead replacement markets; 2004 sales worldwide were up 30% by volume over 2003, but varied erratically from triple the 2003 sales (by volume) in 2004 in Japan to up only a few percent from 2003 in the U.S. The indium price is likely to continue to go upward in 2005, even from previous high levels.
Overall 2005 bismuth sales will be level with 2003 and/or 2003.
The next cover issue will be a pulse-taking on the 2005 outlook after the Detailed Outlook, when we have 3 to 4 months of 2005 data.
Basics/Mines provides news and expertise on four mineral commodities, dimension stone, graphite, bismuth, and indium; in the following sections: