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Pulsetaking Outlook for 2005: “Early Bird”
Issue I • August 2005
The year 2005 should be generally a good year, in spite of the series of Fed interest-rate hikes that began in mid-2004 and are likely to continue, possibly clouding the outlook down the line. The 2005 outlook for dimension stone and indium goes from strength to strength. The outlook for bismuth and graphite is neutral to mildly positive. The 2005 outlook for steel is not as good as that of 2004.
Our Italian readers will hopefully find the new bilingual statistical tables helpful.
The dimension stone outlook for 2005: Overall U.S. dimension stone sales in 2005 are still expected to be strong when compared to 2004, however, the 2005 demand index shows only a 3.5% increase from 2004. Even those that have been no growth or slow growth will be up in 2005: slate (domestic) up 5%, Indiana limestone up 4%, and sandstone up a percent or so. The 2005 index shows that granite countertop sales should be up 5% from 2004, at least marginally stronger; this suggests trimming back our observers' estimates for 2005 granite countertop sales to up 15% from 2004. The 2005 demand index for granite and marble tile is up 3% from 2004. The trimming back is partly the result of having such a strong 2004; "how can you top this?" The trimming back is also partly a function of a conservative estimating process based on limited data; the 2005 numbers will probably rise as data gets more complete.
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall (totale) |
189 |
221 |
278 |
287 |
Granite countertops |
354 |
452 |
715 |
752 |
Marble & Granite tile/piastrella |
169 |
199 |
260 |
268 |
The 2005 indexes are very preliminary.
The next cover issue will be an "Early-Bird" on the Mid-Year Outlook by Observer.
Basics/Mines provides news and expertise on four mineral commodities, dimension stone, graphite, bismuth, and indium; in the following sections: